Read our collection of thought leadership and insight on project finance.
With a network of corporate offices across the UK and the world, you can rest assured that we are not only nearby when you need us, but we also have the local knowledge to help your company’s success.
Read more on how we are supporting Britain's Growth Champions
Actionable Insight from the world of financeVisit the website.
Whatever your business goals and ambitions, we are committed to developing a strong working relationship with you and providing you financial solutions, based on understanding your needs.
Terms and Conditions for Products & Services
Our team of economic research experts provide in-depth analysis and reports on topical economic, financial and industry issues.
More information on Lloyds TSB online services
More information on Bank of Scotland online services
US non-farm payrolls (Nov)
US ISM indices (Nov)
Bank of Canada announcement
Lloyds Business Barometer (Nov)
Industrial output (Oct) PMI indices (Nov)
Autumn Statement sees UK focus ...The coming week sees key international events with the ECB, RBA and Bank of Canada interest rate announcements; euro group finance ministers meeting; key US data, including the latest payrolls and ISM indices; and Chinese PMIs. But for us, Wedensday’s Autumn Statement takes centre stage, although December's MPC announcement and related monetary policy releases and important domestic data will also be monitored closely.
Weaker growth pushes deficits higher ... The Autumn Statement has been eagerly anticipated since the summer. Although much of the reported deterioration in the current year's public finances has been revised away, the main theme of this Autumn Statement looks set to be the weakness of the economy and its impact on the borrowing profile. We forecast the 2012-13 budget deficit to come in around £105bn (£92bn forecast in March). Moreover, likely downward revisions to future GDP growth forecasts could see an additional £100bn of borrowing over the next five years, assuming unchanged policy.
Chancellor breaches fiscal target?... There has been much debate about the transfer of APF assets, but the immediate impact on the fiscal position, ahead of an official classification decision in January, will depend on the OBR’s assumptions. The OBR has stated it expected the tranfers would impact on net debt and net borrowing. Our central forecast has, for some time, been that the Chancellor would miss his supplementary target - to see debt: GDP fall before 2015-16 based on current policies. Indeed we do not expect the Chancellor to step up austerity measures in this Statement to address the prospect of a miss. However, the expected creation of the Homes and Communitites Agency, a body designed to centralise and accelerate the sale of government land and buildings, could see changes in asset sale forecasts. There is also the possibility of a number of other superficial reprofiling measures that could be employed to avoid an actual breach.
MPC on hold this month ... The following day the MPC announces its last monetary policy decision of 2012. Last month's decision to let QE expire was, in part motivated by a near £60bn of expected APF fund transfers over the coming three years, which the MPC described as having similar effects to QE (equivalent to an APF target of £435bn?). This month's expected decision to leave policy unchanged is likely to be straightforward for most members. Whether further QE will be necessary in 2013 is now a close call and will depend on downside risks from Europe and the US not materialising and a pick-up in activity early next year. Monday’s disclosure of Funding for Lending Scheme details will inform the MPC’s decision. Over time, the FLS should help to steer credit growth higher, with the jump in the latest mortgage approvals perhaps an early sign of this. Also this week, we expect a rise in PMIs and industrial activity to bolster sentiment.
ECB still on hold, but forecasts soften ... The ECB remains in pre-OMT paralysis and we expect no further policy measures to be announced next week. Yet updated medium-term growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower, highlighting the need for further stimulus. We expect further easing following activation of the OMT next year, albeit that this would be the most effective boost the ECB can deliver for now.
US releases to inform next week's FOMC... Key US releases, including payrolls and ISM surveys, should show some impact from Hurricane Sandy. Nevertheless, they provide the last news ahead of the following week's key FOMC decision.
This document is confidential, for your information only and must not be distributed, in whole or in part, to any person not involved with the proposed transaction without the prior consent of Lloyds TSB Bank plc (“Lloyds Bank”). Whilst Lloyds Bank has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. In particular, whilst we have sought to identify appropriate products and to provide guidance as to how those products might operate under various accounting standards we are not, and should not be considered to be, giving an accounting opinion or advice and you should conduct your own independent enquiries and seek your own professional advice in this respect. Any transaction which you may enter into with us will be on the basis that you have made your own independent evaluations based on your own knowledge and experience and any professional advice which you may have sought in relation to all aspects of the transaction including legal, regulatory, tax or accounting.
All terms contained herein, including pricing, are indicative only and subject to change without notice.This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds Bank, its directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds Bank Sales representative for clarification.
Lloyds Bank, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc and Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Lloyds Bank and Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets are trading names of Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ.
Registered in Scotland no. 327000. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.