We've approved 80% of all business loan and overdraft requests.
Find out how we can help your business >
With a network of corporate offices across the UK and the world, you can rest assured that we are not only nearby when you need us, but we also have the local knowledge to help your company’s success.
Actionable Insight from the world of financeVisit the website.
Whatever your business goals and ambitions, we are committed to developing a strong working relationship with you and providing you financial solutions, based on understanding your needs.
Terms and Conditions for Products & Services
Our team of economic research experts provide in-depth analysis and reports on topical economic, financial and industry issues.
More information on Lloyds TSB online services
More information on Bank of Scotland online services
US FOMC minutes (Aug)
US CBO Budget and Economic Outlook
US housing sales (Jul)
EZ ‘flash’ PMI surveys (Aug)
GDP (Q2, 1st revision)
Index of services (Jun)
Public finances (Jul)
CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug)
Sanguine trade in thin summer markets ...While financial market activity slips deeper into its summer lull, thin market conditions have combined with a more sanguine outlook. Equity markets have risen, including a near 2% rise in the FTSE €300 index which is at highest since early April. Peripheral euro area bond spreads have tightened and ‘core’ bond markets sold off, including the UK ten-year gilt where the yield has risen by 15bps on the previous week. These movements occurred against, on balance, slightly better economic news. The coming week sees a key UK GDP release and in the US attention remains focused on the monetary policy outlook in the light of upcoming fiscal tightening.
UK GDP set for upward revision ...Domestically the focus returns to the extreme uncertainty and volatility surrounding official data, with the first revision to Q2 GDP due on Friday. The initial estimate of -0.7% (qoq) surprised the market, but included estimated declines for industrial and construction activity that have subsequently been revised higher, with official figures appearing to have initially overestimated the scale of the bank holiday effect. We suspect this will be mirrored in services (latest update also Friday) and should result in an upward revision to overall GDP growth to -0.4%. This would be the biggest revision to a first estimate since the last Jubilee bank holiday effect a decade ago. It is also in line with our view a month ago that GDP would be just below -0.2% after the initial estimate. As chart 1 shows, the ‘true’ economic picture only emerges over a longer time horizon. We suspect further upward revisions are likely over this time scale. The coming week also posts the latest public finances update. These should show continued slippage in the finances against the previous year.
FOMC minutes prelude to Jackson Hole, ‘fiscal cliff‘ focus ...Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from the August meeting will be scanned for clues for the Fed’s next policy decision on September 13, particularly ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s influential Jackson Hole address at the end of this month. Economic signals have been mixed. Survey evidence remains weak, but official data have been firmer, including retail sales, industrial production and labour market releases. Housing data have also improved - often a harbinger of wider economic recovery. We await the coming week’s home sales numbers in the light of firming NAHB evidence. Fed officials have expressed differing views on the outlook for monetary policy, but few voting members have spoken. The outlook for the ‘fiscal cliff’ is pivotal. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the currently legislated fiscal tightening at 4½% of GDP, resulting in a 1½% contraction in GDP in H1 2013. The CBO’s latest Budget and Economic Outlook on Wednesday will update these forecasts. Any significant change could have a marked impact on markets, to the extent that this influences market perception about the prospect for further QE.
Euro area economic outlook remains subdued ... This week’s official estimates confirming renewed contraction across the euro area in Q2 will be superseded by surveys this week signalling the outlook for Q3. Our global team forecasts a modest improvement in the ‘flash’ PMI estimates for August, in part reflecting the reaction to the ECB’s latest policy statement. However, these surveys continue to suggest contraction across the euro area as a whole, and the currency union looks set to contract across H2 2012. The sanguine outlook largely appears to reflect diminishing concerns over the euro crisis. Key will be whether this more upbeat phase persists as euro area policy makers reconvene in early September.
This document is confidential, for your information only and must not be distributed, in whole or in part, to any person not involved with the proposed transaction without the prior consent of Lloyds TSB Bank plc (“Lloyds Bank”). Whilst Lloyds Bank has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. In particular, whilst we have sought to identify appropriate products and to provide guidance as to how those products might operate under various accounting standards we are not, and should not be considered to be, giving an accounting opinion or advice and you should conduct your own independent enquiries and seek your own professional advice in this respect. Any transaction which you may enter into with us will be on the basis that you have made your own independent evaluations based on your own knowledge and experience and any professional advice which you may have sought in relation to all aspects of the transaction including legal, regulatory, tax or accounting.
All terms contained herein, including pricing, are indicative only and subject to change without notice.This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds Bank, its directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds Bank Sales representative for clarification.
Lloyds Bank, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc and Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Lloyds Bank and Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets are trading names of Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ.
Registered in Scotland no. 327000. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.