We've approved 80% of all business loan and overdraft requests.
Find out how we can help your business >
With a network of corporate offices across the UK and the world, you can rest assured that we are not only nearby when you need us, but we also have the local knowledge to help your company’s success.
Actionable Insight from the world of financeVisit the website.
Whatever your business goals and ambitions, we are committed to developing a strong working relationship with you and providing you financial solutions, based on understanding your needs.
Terms and Conditions for Products & Services
Our team of economic research experts provide in-depth analysis and reports on topical economic, financial and industry issues.
More information on Lloyds TSB online services
More information on Bank of Scotland online services
UPCOMING GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS
EZ ‘flash’ PMIs (Dec)
CH ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI (Dec)
UPCOMING UK HIGHLIGHTS
Lloyds Employment Confidence index
Labour market statistics (Nov/Dec)
CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Dec)
Events maintain focus as year-end looms ...Financial markets will be starting to see the year end looming over the coming week, but a number of key events including Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, the EU Summit and the Japanese elections will maintain their focus.
FOMC to endorse further QE ...This week’s FOMC meeting should announce an expansion of QE as Operation Twist expires at month end. The economic indicators have been hard to read given the impact of Hurricane Sandy, but despite that some, including the non-manufactuing ISM, have been relatively firm, and jobless claims returned to their pre-Sandy levels last week. The coming week’s retail sales and industrial output figures are also likely to be distorted. Nevertheless, with the Fed committed to open-ended QE (through MBS) to support growth in an attempt to reduce the unemployment rate and continued uncertainty over the impending ‘fiscal cliff’, we expect further stimulus to be announced. A question surrounds how much the Fed is likely to buy. Twist saw $45bn/month of Treasury purchases, but with QE being balance sheet expanding as well, the Fed may not feel the need to replace all of this. Our global team forecast around $40bn/month. Chairman Bernanke’s press conference afterwards may also provide an update on the Fed's thinking over its forward guidance. Of course, the near-trm outlook for the Fed remains most dependant on the fiscal cliff and the close of the Congressional session this week provides the first soft deadline for these negotiations.
Evidence of an uptick in activity?...The coming week sees 'flash' estimates of December's PMIs. As noted, US surveys have been hard to read due to the hurricane, but others improved in November, including China's PMI, which hit a 13-month high last month, and some euro area indicators have risen from their lows. We are cautiously optimistic of further improvement this month. In China this should be driven by further infrastructure spending that suggest some acceleration in activity. China’s industrial output release earlier in the week should confirm this. Euro area indicators (including the German ZEW survey) should signal slower contraction as tail-risk fears fade, something that seems evident in recent euro area equity outperformance.
ECB victim of its own success? ... The ECB can take most of the credit in the shifting perceptions of tail risk, even before the OMT has been activated. Yet the alleviation of market pressure on euro area governments may once again result in a reneging of previous commitments. ECB’s Asmussen said this week’s Ecofin meeting “could have gone better” in preparation of the coming week’s EU Summit to finalise a blueprint for a Single Supervisory Mechanism, a cornerstone of any banking union. Germany remains resistant to the ECB overseeing the entire banking system. ECB President Draghi has upped the stakes for this week’s meeting, maintaining confidence that a deal can be done. A failure to meet this end-year timetable could cast doubt on banking union progress in 2013 and could unsettle markets.
Labour market to reflect weaker activity?...Domestically, the release calendar is light with the focus on the labour market. Last month posted the first increases in unemployment since mid-year and today's news of surprisingly weak industrial activity continues to point to a further rise. We forecast a 5k increase in claimant count unemployment in November. Moreover BoE Governer King and Chief Economist Dale speak at separate events this week. With fears of renewed softness in activity, we will be interested to see any shift in emphasis in their outlooks.
This document is confidential, for your information only and must not be distributed, in whole or in part, to any person not involved with the proposed transaction without the prior consent of Lloyds TSB Bank plc (“Lloyds Bank”). Whilst Lloyds Bank has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. In particular, whilst we have sought to identify appropriate products and to provide guidance as to how those products might operate under various accounting standards we are not, and should not be considered to be, giving an accounting opinion or advice and you should conduct your own independent enquiries and seek your own professional advice in this respect. Any transaction which you may enter into with us will be on the basis that you have made your own independent evaluations based on your own knowledge and experience and any professional advice which you may have sought in relation to all aspects of the transaction including legal, regulatory, tax or accounting.
All terms contained herein, including pricing, are indicative only and subject to change without notice.This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds Bank, its directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds Bank Sales representative for clarification.
Lloyds Bank, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc and Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Lloyds Bank and Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets are trading names of Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ.
Registered in Scotland no. 327000. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.