International trade has always been a fine balance of opportunity and risk. The autumn edition of FD Gameplan explores what this means for FDs, with insight and acumen from leading business strategists, and actionable analysis from our own trade experts.
Find out more and inform your trade strategy today with FD Gameplan
With a network of corporate offices across the UK and the world, you can rest assured that we are not only nearby when you need us, but we also have the local knowledge to help your company’s success.
Our latest Business in Britain survey reveals growing economic confidence.
Read the full report >
Whatever your business goals and ambitions, we are committed to developing a strong working relationship with you and providing you financial solutions, based on understanding your needs.
Terms and Conditions for Products & Services
Our team of economic research experts provide in-depth analysis and reports on topical economic, financial and industry issues.
More information on Lloyds Bank online services
More information on Bank of Scotland online services
CH Industrial production (Jul)
CH CPI (Jul)
US trade (Jul)
GE Industrial production (Jun)
BoE Inflation Report (Aug)
Industrial production (Jun)
Producer prices (Jul)
Initial market reaction belies some merit to ECB’s latest proposals ...Market reaction to the ECB’s failure to provide instant relief was predictable. Spanish 10-year yields rose back above the psychologically important 7%, but remain below the level before ECB President Draghi’s recent comments. The ECB’s plan of standing ready to supplement EFSF/ESM bond purchases increases the potential firepower of these funds to contain financial market contagion. This could ease the current crisis if Spain’s (and possibly Italy’s) government chooses to ask for support. In turn, this could bolster confidence and improve growth prospects. In the short term, the crisis is likely to continue to generate headwinds to activity.
China is the global focus ... The coming week sees few global releases, except the latest monthly news from China. July’s releases should continue to suggest firmer activity in China, with fixed investment increasingly boosted by local government spending and an acceleration in industrial output consistent with recent PMIs. We believe Chinese activity reached a nadir at the start of 2012 and has been firming since. Soft import growth has exacerbated concerns, but we think these numbers are exaggerating import weakness particularly in raw commodities. We forecast further monetary policy easing across Q3, but with the aim of supporting recovery.
Downbeat Inflation Report... The MPC chose to leave policy unchanged this week and the coming week will provide some insight into the Committee's thinking as the Governor presents the latest quarterly inflation report. Within weeks of May's Report, Governor King suggested it had become dated and was voting for further stimulus, which the Committee eventually adopted in July. August's Report looks set to catch up with this outlook and we expect the Bank to revise both its GDP and inflation projections, the latter impacted by the decline in global commodity prices. Governor King’s recent press conferences have adopted a more downbeat tone than the broader Report and we expect a continued focus on the impact of the euro area crisis on the UK economy as a whole.
June’s data details bank holiday effect ... The coming week should start to clear the uncertainty surrounding UK activity. The coming week sees June’s industrial and construction sector updates, which will replace the official estimates included in the preliminary Q2 GDP release. Much uncertainty surrounds the impact of the bank holiday effect and the upcoming data will define the scale of decline in June. We estimate that while manufacturing output may be revised lower than the initial estimate, the wider industrial measure should be revised a touch firmer to -1.2% (from -1.3%). This is unlikely to be sufficient to see GDP as a whole revised higher in the next release, although we hold out the possibility that Q2 could eventually be revised higher after the full revision process.
Little US guidance ...Today’s US payrolls report was ambiguous for the outlook for the US. The last time the Federal Reserve used outright QE, in late 2010, payrolls had contracted from June to September inclusive. The employment report is far from suggesting this scale of weakness and is more in keeping with the sub-100ks that prompted 'operation twist' in 2011 and in the current phase. The latest Fed meeting stated that it would "closely monitor" developments and provide additional accommodation as needed. Our global team expects to see QE in September, a view becoming increasingly widespread in financial markets. There is little this week to provide further evidence on the US economy, which will leave markets even more focused on global developments.
This document is confidential, for your information only and must not be distributed, in whole or in part, to any person not involved with the proposed transaction without the prior consent of Lloyds TSB Bank plc (“Lloyds Bank”). Whilst Lloyds Bank has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. In particular, whilst we have sought to identify appropriate products and to provide guidance as to how those products might operate under various accounting standards we are not, and should not be considered to be, giving an accounting opinion or advice and you should conduct your own independent enquiries and seek your own professional advice in this respect. Any transaction which you may enter into with us will be on the basis that you have made your own independent evaluations based on your own knowledge and experience and any professional advice which you may have sought in relation to all aspects of the transaction including legal, regulatory, tax or accounting.
All terms contained herein, including pricing, are indicative only and subject to change without notice.This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds Bank, its directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds Bank Sales representative for clarification.
Lloyds Bank, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc and Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Lloyds Bank and Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets are trading names of Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ.
Registered in Scotland no. 327000. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.